Creating Space for Civil Society Through Technology and Open Data

Creating Space for Civil Society Through Technology and Open Data

Today is International Day of Democracy, a day meant to inspire reflection and celebration of the principles of democracy worldwide. This year’s theme, “Space for Civil Society,” serves as a reminder that a strong and active civil society is necessary for resilient democracy.

This year’s theme is also a reaction to the fact that civil society faces serious challenges globally. Since the early 2000s, authoritarian regimes have used new methods to limit the ability of civil society to protect the rights of citizens, demand accountability from government and engage in public policy. These limitations extend to the Internet and social media; authoritarian regimes continue to curtail political speech and monitor political dissent online.

But just as autocratic regimes are imposing these limitations, civil society is adopting new technologies and using open government data to create new civic space and work in parallel with the interests of open, inclusive government. NDI is supporting these efforts by assisting civil society groups in the creation of international norms and standards for legislative openness and open election data.

International platforms, such as the Legislative Openness Working Group of the Open Government Partnership (OGP), which NDI co-chairs with the Congress of Chile, have brought together elected officials with civil society groups to develop tools that help advance government accountability. In Georgia, the Inter-Factional Working Group on Legislative Openness has used the OGP framework to develop an action plan in collaboration with civil society to improve the transparency of parliament. On this International Day of Democracy, the Parliament of Georgia is hosting an international conference, as part of the Global Legislative Openness Week, to share its experience with other legislatures throughout the region.

Open election and parliamentary data has also become a rallying point for civil society groups around the world. In Kenya, for example, civil society, the technology community and election officials recently created a joint task force to make open election data a priority ahead of Kenya’s 2017 polls, drawing on NDI’s Open Election Data Initiative.

While open data is creating a path to accountability, it is important to remember that these tools can only be meaningful to the average citizen or to those in government when it informs dialogue and deliberation. That is why civil society groups must also play the role of data interpreter: processing, visualizing and communicating open data so that it can be understood and used to enhance the engagement of citizens, particularly women and youth who are disproportionately impacted by a lack of transparency. Technology can help facilitate data analysis, but it is ultimately up to civil society to utilize open data for democratic development.

With our partners, NDI is helping pioneer the use of international norms, open data and technology to create new space for civil society, and will continue to support the innovative work of citizen groups in this area. But in order to ensure long-term democratic resilience, these tools must help create a precedent so that space for civil society not only exists, but is also occupied effectively and constructively.

Read More
Six Critical African Elections to Watch in 2015

Six Critical African Elections to Watch in 2015

Between January 2015 and December 2016, African countries will organize more than 35 presidential and legislative elections, and the outcomes have the potential to spark a sea change for the continent. The first of these polls took place in January with the Zambian presidential election after the unexpected death of President Michael Sata.

The March 28 elections in Nigeria can be seen as a harbinger for electoral events to come over the next year in Africa and for democratic development throughout the region. For the first time since independence in 1960, Nigerian voters peacefully voted to transfer political power from one party to another. Given Nigeria’s checkered electoral history filled with violence, rigging and lack of a viable opposition party since military rule ended in 1999, Nigeria’s recent success story is a positive sign for its democratic consolidation and a potential game-changer for other African elections.

The odds for a successful outcome were stacked against Nigeria. However, these challenges seemed to galvanize Nigerian voters and spurred them to take ownership of a hard won democratic process after decades of military rule. Nigeria beat the odds in the most competitive elections the country has ever seen.

At her Africa Policy Forum on the impact of 2015 elections in Africa, U.S. Congresswoman Karen Bass, D-CA, said, “It’s incumbent upon all of us who care about Africa to celebrate the good news.” The success of the polls in Nigeria gives cause for hope.

The determination of Nigerians to take part in the democratic process and to both participate peacefully and accept the outcome should be commended. If Nigeria is indeed a model for the subregion, I hope that the lessons learned and positive momentum will carry over to other critical elections scheduled this year. The elections in Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the Central African Republic (CAR) and Guinea, among others, will show whether Nigeria is an anomaly, or the beginning of broader democratic progress across the region.

Burundi1) Burundi at risk of democratic backslide

In Burundi, after a decade of relative peace following 12 years of armed conflict and ethnic polarization, President Pierre Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party recently designated him as its presidential candidate for a third term. The CNDD-FDD argued that a constitutional change to extend term limits to three terms was unnecessary given that the president was indirectly elected by the legislature for his first term. With mounting violence in advance of the polls, Burundi is at risk of democratic backsliding during its legislative and presidential elections scheduled for May 26 and June 26, respectively.

Cote d'Ivoire2) Political polarization in Côte d’Ivoire could limit political participation

Political violence in Côte d’Ivoire leading up to presidential polls scheduled for Oct. 25, a run off on Nov. 22 and parliamentary elections in December 2016 is likely to be isolated. But political polarization and scars from post-election violence in 2010 will make national reconciliation a challenge. The country’s three major political parties will likely need to form coalitions to win the majority vote. President Alassane Ouattara is expected to win a second term.

Burkina Faso

3) In Burkina Faso, a chance to redefine the political landscape

The political landscape in Burkina Faso has already seen dramatic shifts in the last year, well before presidential and legislative polls scheduled for Oct. 11. After the much-publicized ouster of President Blaise Compaoré on Oct. 31, 2014, weeks of demonstrations gave way to a military-approved plan for a civilian-led transitional government in place until the October elections. In October, Burkinabe people will have an opportunity to redefine their political landscape and elect a new leader through what are expected to be highly competitive elections.

Democratic Republic of Congo

4) A slippery slope for the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The DRC has local and provincial polls scheduled for Oct. 25 followed by indirect senatorial elections on Jan. 17, 2016, and legislative and presidential polls on Nov. 27, 2016. Deteriorating security, extreme poverty and the failed 2009 peace deal between the Kabila government and National Congress for the Defense of the People all threaten stability. If President Joseph Kabila decides not to respect his term limits, democratic progress could continue to slide backward and disagreement between ruling and opposition parties over the timing  of local elections could lead to boycotts by the opposition. Continued high-level diplomatic attention focused on the DRC in the run up to the elections, like that from President Obama, could help prevent further backsliding.

Central African Republic5) The Central African Republic faces a difficult path forward

Continuous insecurity in the CAR has displaced close to one million people. With a constitutional referendum, presidential and parliamentary elections and runoff presidential and parliamentary elections all scheduled for 2015, the divided country faces deep challenges. Previous elections in the CAR have been riddled with problems. These problems combined with the government’s persistent neglect of the country’s outlying regions, continued insecurity, and poverty have been barriers to improved governance and democratic progress in the CAR. The United Nations is currently running a peacekeeping operation in the CAR previously started by the African Union in the hopes of stabilizing the country.

Guinea6) Pinning down a date in Guinea

Guinea has a presidential election scheduled for Oct. 11, 2015, with local polls delayed until early 2016. Existing political tensions between the ruling and opposition parties have escalated mainly due to election scheduling. Election timing is critical in Guinea and continuous delays and changes to the electoral calendar have stoked frustrations. Opposition demonstrations recently resumed accompanied by violence and opposition party spokesperson Aboubacar Sylla was attacked. The lead up to October is expected to be tense; however, there is still time for tensions to abate.

Last month’s elections in Nigeria captured the enthusiasm of voters and showed their determination to claim ownership of their democracy. Election outcomes in 2015 and 2016 have the potential to impact democratic development across Africa now and for decades to come. Voters in these critical elections countries should take note of Nigeria’s example. As Nigerian citizens know, democracy is a hard-fought and hard-won process. However, even if elections themselves are successful, democracy does not begin or end at the polling station. Voting is one part of the democratic process.

Read More
Photos That Uncover the Meaning of Democracy

Photos That Uncover the Meaning of Democracy

Editor’s Note: The United Nations International Democracy Day (Sept. 15, 2015) is observed every year as a reminder of the universality of democratic values.

To celebrate this year’s Democracy Day, Over 100 thought-provoking images were submitted by photographers from all around the world, but the following five stood out.

Click here to share via Twitter your answer the question: “What does democracy means to you?” Use hashtag #DemocracyIs.

1. Resilience (Tweet this)

Despite the power being cut, the national campaign for education and awareness of citizen involvement sessions continued. With only the light from cell phones and flashlights the trainings continued, despite the surrounding darkness: democracy means resilience. Marie-Ève Bilodeau, NDI’s resident director in Tunisia, took this photo while in Nouadhibou, Mauritania.

The power was cut, but despite the surrounding darkness a national campaign for education and awareness of citizen involvement training session in Mauritania continued with only the light from cell phones and flashlights. Democracy means resilience. Marie-Ève Bilodeau, NDI’s resident director in Tunisia, took this photo while in Nouadhibou, Mauritania.

2. The right to vote (Tweet this)

Women in Nasarawa state, Nigeria, line up to show their permanent voter’s cards, waiting to be accredited to vote in the March 2015 national elections. This photo, which was taken by Ryan Dalton, senior program assistant with NDI’s Central and West Africa team, shows that democracy means the right to vote. In a largely peaceful election, Muhammadu Buhari’s victory over incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan marked the country’s first democratic transition of power from one political party to another.

Women in Nasarawa state, Nigeria, line up to show their permanent voter’s cards, waiting to be accredited to vote in the March 2015 national elections. This photo, which was taken by Ryan Dalton, senior program assistant with NDI’s Central and West Africa team, shows that democracy means the right to vote. In a largely peaceful election, Muhammadu Buhari’s victory over incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan marked the country’s first democratic transition of power from one political party to another.

Read More
Is democracy getting in the way of development?

Is democracy getting in the way of development?

PHOTOS© CHRISTOPHE CALAIS/SIGNATURES; GWENN DUBOURTHOUMIEU FOR JA

The Africa Report, in association with the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, is organising the inaugural session of The Africa Report Debates in Accra on 20 November to ask the question: Is democracy getting in the way of development?

When China’s President Xi Jinping arrives in South Africa for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation on 4-5 December, he will face a barrage of questions, private and public, about the health of his country’s economic relations with Africa’s 54 states.

China, despite its slowdown and rebalancing, is still Africa’s second-largest trading partner after Europe, with trade worth more than $220bn in 2014.

Sometimes democracy – our politicians and civil society and their arguments – gets in the way development

Many of the questions will be about the numbers and timeframes: whether, or perhaps when, will China’s imports of African resources return to the glory days of the commodity supercycle? How will China’s investments in African infrastructure be affected by Beijing’s policy shifts? Will China open more factories in Africa?

There will also be some quieter, more strategic questions about tackling poverty and underdevelopment. In that area, China remains the world leader historically, with more than 400 million of its people climbing out of poverty in the past three decades. Its success – along with that of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – has sparked a vibrant debate on development models in Africa.

Getting the development strategy right – the balance between political pluralism and building a developmental state – will affect the lives of hundreds of millions. At once it is the biggest responsibility for governments: to ensure maximum social provision in terms of education and health along with growth and economic well-being and the freedom to pursue these.

There is also a time imperative: more than 350 million young Africans are due to join the labour market over the next three decades, with Africa’s population due to hit two billion by 2050.

As Africa becomes the fastest-urbanising continent, it could take advantage, like China, of the demographic dividend offered by this workforce and market. Failure could prove catastrophic, within and well beyond Africa’s shores.

Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, highlighted the human stakes when he went to Ghana on 16 October to launch ‘Poverty in a Rising Africa’, a new report based on 25 years of household surveys. “Africa’s economy is on the rise, but to avoid bypassing vulnerable people – whether in the rural areas or in fragile states – we must improve how we measure human progress,” he explained.

Kim’s choice of Ghana drew attention to that country’s record of combining political pluralism and economic progress. Over the past three decades, Ghana has cut poverty by more than half, from 53% in 1991 to 21% in 2012, according to the World Bank.

But, more widely, Africa’s last decade of strong growth failed to cut poverty significantly, the report says. It estimates that 388 million people were living in ex- treme poverty in Africa in 2012, compared to 284 million in 1990.

However, as a percentage of the population the number had fallen – to 43% compared to 56% in 1990. What, then, is the best form of attack on this poverty? In 1957, South Korea had a lower per capita gross domestic product than Ghana.

Today, it is the thirteenth-largest economy in the world, partly because President Park Chung-hee’s authoritarian regime focused remorselessly on export-oriented industrialisation, which produced what became known as the ‘Miracle on the Han River.’

The three pillars of Park’s strategy – land redistribution, export-oriented manufacturing and a closely controlled financial sector – were anathema to would-be advisers from the World Bank and the country’s business elite, who tried to co-opt him.

Park’s methods appalled democracy’s promoters in the region: he seized power in a military coup in 1961, won election as a civilian president and changed the constitution’s term limits, before being assassinated by the head of his intelligence services in 1979.

But the South Korean model is widely admired across Africa. It was a senior Kenyan civil servant who put the point to The Africa Report a year ago: “Sometimes democracy – our politicians and civil society and their arguments – gets in the way development.” He was exasperated by local campaigns against the rebuilding of the Nairobi-Mombasa railway.

Perhaps three governments in Africa – Ethiopia, Morocco and Rwanda – are producing substantial economic results with authoritarian political systems.

An adviser to Ethiopia’s late Premier Meles Zenawi said that “state consolidation would have to take priority over democratisation. We need a state that has the capacity to deliver the basic social goods before we can talk about competitive partisan politics.”

South Africa’s former president Thabo Mbeki warns against being too reductive on the issue: “We have to admit there are some authoritarian systems that are strengthening economies, and there are pluralist systems that do the same. It is a matter of degree, finding a balance.”

A fellow South African, Thuli Madonsela, the public protector who has led the investigation into the state financing of President Jacob Zuma’s Nkandla homestead, says it is also a matter of history: “People have looked at why China works, why Singapore works. You always have to look back at traditions. There is no way in South Africa that that sort of option would work.”

She explains: “South Africa is a society that was based on defiance […], that was built on challenging authoritarianism. So if the new government had become authoritarian, it would have been chaos from day one.”

But even in economically successful states in Asia, Madonsela argues, political pressures will build up: “In countries like China, Singapore and Malaysia, they have authoritarian regimes, but those systems are not eternal. They will blow one day. We have seen cracks already.”

Read More
Critical Issues Facing Africa: Terrorism, War, and Political Violence

Critical Issues Facing Africa: Terrorism, War, and Political Violence

During 2014, along with the horrific outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, the continent as a whole experienced one of the more turbulent years in its recent history with widespread protests, unrest, civil wars, and insurgencies. The most recent flare-up of this new wave of violence resulted in Boko Haram’s deadliest attack ever, the massacre of an estimated 2,000 people in the northeastern village of Doron Baga.

In the wake of this attack, American policymakers must acknowledge the threats that ongoing conflicts in Africa have to the well-being, safety, and interests of the citizens of African states and those of U.S. citizens living and working abroad.

The more stable that Africa becomes, the better able the United States and its citizens will be able to pursue humanitarian and economic relationships with African states and their citizens. The more unstable that Africa becomes, the more the people of Africa will suffer at the hands of opportunistic, militant actors like Boko Haram and al Shabaab, the more volatility will manifest itself in world markets, and the less able the U.S. and its partners will be able to accomplish their humanitarian and developmental aims. Most troublingly, many conflicts currently taking place in Africa, like Boko Haram’s insurgency and the Second Libyan Civil War, are intensifying and spreading to surrounding states, increasing the risk of negative outcomes.

 

AMISOM Troops on Mogadishu’s Frontline (UN Photo/Stuart)

In this vein, the American Security Project (ASP) is proud to release “Critical Issues Facing Africa: Terrorism, War, and Political Violence,” featuring data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). This report blends together powerful quantitative and qualitative analyses to show how political violence in Africa unfolded during 2014, how it changed from 2013 – 2014, and how it will change going into 2015. Explore the data yourself through nine interactive charts.

The following three topics – “Overview of Political Violence in Africa During 2014”, “Trends in Political Violence in Africa Over Time”, and “Major Ongoing Conflicts in Africa During 2014 – 2015” – are at the core of Africa’s security challenge.

Overview of Political Violence in Africa During 2014

DEATHS FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA BY COUNTRY, 2014

0011,52911,529
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: The African countries that suffered the most deaths from political violence in during 2014 are generally located near the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, the Sudan, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Niger River Delta.

AFRICAN COUNTRIES THAT SUFFERED THE MOST DEATHS
FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE DURING 2014

03,0006,0009,00012,000NigeriaSouth SudanSomaliaSudanCAR (Central A…Deaths From Political Violence

Country Deaths From Political Violence
Nigeria 11,529
South Sudan 6,389
Somalia 4,447
Sudan 3,892
CAR (Central African Republic) 3,347
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: The African countries that experienced the most deaths from political violence in 2014 are: 1) Nigeria, 2) South Sudan, 3) Somalia, 4) Sudan, 5) the Central African Republic.

PERCENTAGE OF TOP FIVE AFRICAN COUNTRIES OUT OF
TOTAL DEATHS FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN 2014

NigeriaSouth SudanSomaliaSudanAll Other Countries

Deaths From Political Violence Adherents
All Other Countries 9,587
Central African Republic 3,347
Sudan 3,892
Somalia 4,447
South Sudan 6,389
Nigeria 11,529
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: Deaths from the countries that experienced the most deaths from political violence during 2014 – Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, and the Central African Republic – constituted 75.5% of continent-wide deaths in 2014, suggesting a high level of concentration of conflict in a few specific areas.

Trends in Political Violence in Africa Over Time

TOTAL DEATHS FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA, 2010 – 2014

20102011201220132014010,00020,00030,00040,000YearDeaths From Political Violence

Year Total Deaths From Political Violence in Africa
2010 12,400
2011 19,021
2012 15,201
2013 29,851
2014 39,191
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: Since 2010, the number of deaths from political violence in Africa has increased significantly. In this regard, 2014, with its rising numbers of deaths from political violence over 2013, was within an established pattern.

NOMINAL CHANGE IN DEATHS FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN
AFRICA BY COUNTRY, 2013 – 2014

-2,924-2,9246,8156,815
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: The regions of Africa that experienced the highest nominal increases in the number of deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are located in a latitudinal belt extending from the Niger River Delta in the West to South Sudan and the Horn of Africa in the East. There was also a pronounced increase on the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea in Libya. The regions of Africa that experienced the highest nominal declines in the number of deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are the Nile River Delta and Northern Sudan in the northeast and the Congo River to the south of the belt of increased violence.

TOP FIVE NOMINAL INCREASES AND DECLINES IN DEATHS
FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA, 2013 – 2014

-3,00003,0006,0009,000SudanEgyptDemocratic Re…MaliEthiopiaSomaliaCameroonLibyaSouth SudanNigeriaNominal Change in Deaths From Political Violence 2013 – 2014

Country Change in Deaths From Political Violence
Sudan -2,924
Egypt -1,144
Democratic Republic of Congo -741
Mali -490
Ethiopia -288
Somalia 1,294
Cameroon 1,328
Libya 2,192
South Sudan 2,221
Nigeria 6,815
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: The African countries that experienced the highest nominal increases in deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are: 1) Nigeria, 2) South Sudan, 3) Libya, 4) Cameroon, 5) Somalia. The African countries that experienced the highest nominal declines in deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are: 1) Sudan, 2) Egypt, 3) the Democratic Republic of Congo, 4) Mali, 5) Ethiopia.

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN DEATHS FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN
AFRICA BY COUNTRY, 2013 – 2014

-100-1003,4953,495
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: The regions of Africa that experienced the highest percentage increases in the number of deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are located in a longitudinal belt extending from the Niger River Delta in the South to the southern coast of the Mediterranean sea in the North. The northwest and northeast corners of the continent experienced small declines along with most of central Africa.

TOP FIVE PERCENTAGE INCREASES AND DECLINES IN DEATHS
FROM POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN AFRICA, 2013 – 2014

-1,50001,5003,0004,500AngolaTogoGuineaEritreaRepublic of Co…Burkina FasoUgandaLibyaChadCameroonChange in Deaths From Political Violence 2013 – 2014

Country % Change in Deaths From Political Violence
Angola -100
Togo -100
Guinea -91
Eritrea -88
Republic of Congo -73
Burkina Faso 414
Uganda 474
Libya 495
Chad 900
Cameroon 3,495
Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways: The African countries that experienced the highest percentage increases in deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are: 1) Cameroon, 2) Chad, 3) Libya, 4) Uganda, 5) Burkina Faso. The African countries that experienced the highest percentage declines in deaths from political violence from 2013 to 2014 are: 1) Angola, 2) Togo, 3) Guinea, 4) Eritrea, 5) the Republic of Congo.

Major Ongoing Conflicts in Africa During 2014 – 2015

MAP OF MAJOR ONGOING CONFLICTS IN AFRICA, 2014 – 2015

Interactive: Click/Hover For Additional Insights

Main Takeaways:
Central Africa
The epicenter of political violence in Africa during 2014 was undoubtedly Nigeria, particularly its northeastern border with Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Boko Haram’s insurgency cost thousands of lives, displaced countless more, and led to widespread devastation. The past year also saw Boko Haram expand its operations into neighboring Cameroon where security forces have faced challenges in containing its increasing strength and widening field of action.

Troublingly, it is becoming increasingly evident that neighboring Chad and Niger, which have already experienced large numbers of displaced persons and refugees from Nigeria, are being drawn into the conflict. As a result, the African Union, which has, in the recent past, deployed sizeable military forces to Somalia and Mali, is considering a new mission in the area to contain and rollback Boko Haram.

North Africa
To the North, Libya descended into civil war with a faction associated with General Khalifa Haftar and the National Government in Tobruk controlling the eastern half of the country and a faction associated with Libya Dawn (Fajr Libya) and islamist groups like Ansar al-Sharia controlling the western half.

As with Boko Haram’s destabilization of the entire Niger River Delta region, the nascent Second Libyan Civil War threatens to destabilize surrounding Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria. Moreover, as the power vacuum in northeastern Syria was a crucial factor in the rise of ISIS, islamist groups may seek to increasingly co-opt the Libya Dawn coalition in the western part of the country or carve out their own areas of control and influence. There are some encouraging signs in nearby Egypt, Algeria, Mali, and Sudan, which have all seen declines in deaths from political violence during 2014, but still face sizeable ethnic and sectarian insurgencies of their own.

East Africa
To the East, the Central African Republic continued to suffer from a civil war between Seleka, Anti-Balaka, and Government militias. The Seleka, associated with militant Islam, and the Anti-Balaka, associated with militant Christianity and Animism, are attempting to force a breakup of the country along sectarian and ethnic lines with the country’s population caught in the fatal crossfire.

In neighboring South Sudan, civil war between factions associated with the country’s Dinka and Nuer tribes intensified while, to the north, fighting between South Sudanese separatists and the government of Omar al-Bashir declined, but still constituted a major conflict. Farther to the East in Somalia, fighting between the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the islamist, militant group al Shabaab also intensified.

Southern Africa
To the South, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s endemic strife calmed while the number of deaths from political violence in Uganda increased.

Other than civil strife in South Africa, most of the continent’s southern tip saw both low levels of deaths from violence and little change in the total numbers of deaths from the previous year. However, off the eastern coast of Africa, Madagascar has experienced a marked increase in deaths, particularly involving a number of insurgent Dahalo militias.

Conclusions and Executive Summary

OVERALL TRENDS

During the past few years, violence in Africa has, undoubtedly, increased from its recent historic levels. Moreover, it is clear that the current phase of this violence is highly concentrated in a small number of high-profile conflicts: the Boko Haram insurgency in Central Africa, the Second Libyan Civil War to the north of the Sahara, and the al Shabaab insurgency in the continent’s eastern horn.

This violence has predominantly taken the shape of 1) conflicts between sectarian and ethnic insurgent groups and state governments and 2) civil war between various coalitions of sectarian and ethnic groups fighting for control of the state itself.

While this article’s quantitative analysis is limited to the number of people killed in conflict, there is strong evidence to suggest that the personal suffering of African citizens injured or displaced and the loss of potential development and economic opportunity from the instability that high levels of violence engenders are substantial, if not increasing as well.

Importantly, as with ISIS, many groups latch onto larger organizations like Boko Haram and al Shabaab not necessarily because they believe in their ideology, but rather because they possess the strongest, relative organizational structure and, thus, represent the best conduit for these groups to achieve their separate objectives. At the same time, these groups risk being co-opted by the larger organization and ideology that they believe they can restrain and control.

WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

During a time in which advances in communication, economic integration, and political solidarity find the world’s many nations drawn together into a closely-knit network, both the emerging and persistent threats to the security of Africa constitute a threat to all, especially the United States.

In consideration of the analyses presented in these articles, U.S. policymakers and citizens must consider seriously these threats and work to devise effective solutions.

 

SOURCE: americansecurityproject.org

Read More